almotamar.net financial times - Election victories – like murders – require three elements: means, motives, and opportunities. It does not need Inspector Maigret to explain Nicolas Sarkozy’s electoral success. In this tumultuous presidential campaign, the neo-Gaullist candidate has had the most powerful means and clearest motives and has exploited a perfect opportunity.
First, Mr Sarkozy gave himself the means by seizing control of the ruling UMP party in November 2004 and turning it into a formidable political machine. French parties – particularly of the right – have been shambolic affairs; shifting coalitions of convenience that have resembled personal fan clubs more than professional political organisations. Yet as UMP president, Mr Sarkozy built something far more substantial, rigorously analysing public opinion, expanding membership, and devising effective methods of communication, particularly via the unregulated internet.

Mr Sarkozy also united his own political camp by pulling potential trouble-makers into his tent. Mr Sarkozy squared his long-time antagonist, President Jacques Chirac, earning a grudging endorsement from the two-term president. He ensured Alain Juppé, former prime minister, Chirac loyalist, and one-time rival, was given a big role in the campaign (and the promise of a return to the foreign ministry).
Michèle Alliot-Marie, the defence minister, and other diehard Gaullists were also reconciled with Mr Sarkozy’s more economically liberal brand of conservatism. The UMP leader then stretched out to eminent political figures outside his party, enlisting the support of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the former president, and Simone Veil, the “conscience of France,” both originally from the centre-right UDF party. Unlike Ségolène Royal, Mr Sarkozy commanded solid support within his ranks and recruited influential allies outside.
Second, Mr Sarkozy developed a compelling political programme that was sellable to voters. During the past two years, the UMP has held seminars on the biggest topics of the day – employment, education, social inclusion, the environment, and foreign policy – and harvested the brightest ideas from French and foreign experts. Those ideas were then condensed into policy proposals – and soundbites – and tested on focus groups. In particular, Mr Sarkozy championed tough policies on crime and immigration designed to attract voters from the hardline National Front. As a former trial lawyer, Mr Sarkozy had the silky skills of persuasion needed to sell his ideas.
Third, Mr Sarkozy was presented with a ready-made opportunity to make his pitch. After 12 years of listless government under Mr Chirac, France has been crying out for clear direction and purposeful reform. Mr Sarkozy’s stints at the interior and finance ministries have enhanced his reputation as a no-nonsense politician prepared to say what he wants to do and do what he says. He was enough of a political insider to present himself as a credible head of state but remained enough of an outsider to distance himself from Mr Chirac’s old regime. As the son of a Hungarian immigrant, who never attended the grand establishment schools, Mr Sarkozy has been an atypical representative of the political right.
Mr Sarkozy has demonstrated he is the most talented vote-winner of his generation but will he be a good president? Will he have the wisdom and patience needed to implement the reforms he has promised?
Or will his famously short fuse, never lit during the campaign, spark in office?
Some of his supporters, such as Ms Veil, worry the demonisation of Mr Sarkozy during the campaign may have hampered his ability to reform.
His Socialist opponents seized on Mr Sarkozy’s “divisive” rhetoric and warned that he is a danger for France.
Some left-wing militants threaten to conduct the third round of the presidential elections on the street and to resist his legislative programme.
Mr Sarkozy still needs to form a majority in parliament after June’s legislative elections before he can make good on his promises.
Yet Christine Lagarde, the trade minister expected to retain a prominent government role, is confident he can succeed saying the trade unions will not be able to “hold the country hostage” as they have in the past.
“The majority [of voters] have said they want reforms. While trying to accommodate everyone, he will deliver on those reforms,” she says. “He is not a weak character.”
By John Thornhill in Paris
Published: May 6 2007 19:04 | Last updated: May 6 2007 19:04